A Political Science professor at Iowa State University, Scott Feinstein, discussed the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine War and prospects for peace at the Culver Public Policy Center’s latest Pizza and Policy event on Feb. 25.
The day before the event, Feb. 24, marked the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the Executive Director of the John C. Culver Public Policy Center Seth Anderson, this was “the start of the largest and deadliest land war in Europe since World War II.”
Since then, the conflict has claimed 1.8 million military casualties on both sides. The death toll in Ukraine alone stands at 15,000, with another 40,000 injured. Nearly 6 million Ukrainians, or about 15% of the country’s pre-war population, have fled to other countries since Russia invaded.
Feinstein joined the United States Peace Corps and was sent to the Republic of Moldova in Eastern Europe, which is bordered by Ukraine to the north. He witnessed the tensions years earlier on the ground.
He and other Peace Corps volunteers got together with baseball gear and organized a Little League Baseball program, where kids could compete in tournaments at the camps along the Transnistrian and Moldovan border.
Feinstein recollected this experience, along with his master’s training in political science. He shared his insight into the conflict by outlining current developments and prospects for peace.
Detailing the impacts of the war on Ukraine, Feinstein explained how its main infrastructure has been destroyed in the drone attacks from Russia.
“When the Ukraine war began, in the first nine months, about 45% of energy infrastructure had been attacked and damaged,” Feinstein said. “Today it’s more like about 80% has been damaged, and most of that has come in the last year. There’s been more strikes in the last year than all the other three years combined.”
Feinstein explained how Ukrainian civilians are now navigating everyday life as education, housing and energy sources are in complete disarray.
Approximately 1,700-2,000 schools and other educational facilities have been damaged in Ukraine, and 30% of children do not regularly attend school. People seek shelter in subways to get protection from the air raids, and water and nuclear facilities have been targeted in attacks. Landmines and military waste have also contaminated large areas of farmland.
The biggest change to the structure of conflict, however, was the use of drone warfare. According to Feinstein, the idea of the front lines have been completely upturned in the wake of this new technology.
“They have all sorts of drones that are dropping bombs. AI-integrated autonomous swarms are being used,” Feinstein said. “It’s become very drone-centric. 75% of casualties are coming from drones.”
On the Russian side, 400,000 have been killed. Feinstein repeated Andersen’s statement, saying it has been the most vital conflict since the second World War.
Feinstein highlighted how the United States attempted to reach an agreement with Russia. Following this, he asked how many in attendance believed a peace agreement was possible; no one in the room raised their hand.
“For the prediction markets, this room is much more pessimistic,” Feinstein said. “About 30-40% say from these prediction markets that there might be one … I’m not necessarily the most optimistic myself.”
Feinstein then explained the three potential prospects for peace. He outlined the options of total victory, a ceasefire or a peace agreement. He shared, however, his skepticism toward the former two options.
“A robust peace agreement would be our ideal situation,” Feinstein said.
He further explained how such an agreement has two necessary conditions. The attacker must not sustain its advance, or the stalemate becomes too costly for both parties.
Feinstein detailed how the high external and internal costs and pressures, United States intelligence support, and Russia’s authoritarian motivations would shape the future of this conflict.
“Being able to mess with these levers is where we have the opportunity to incentivize or impose costs externally and where we can see maybe these conditions that can bring about a moment where they’re going to discuss a structure of peace,” Feinstein said.
Closing the conversation, a questioning period ensued, followed by information regarding Iowa State University’s master’s programs for political science.
Following the event, Peyton Robertson, a junior majoring in political science, and a Culver Fellow and co-chair for the Culver Center, spoke on the discussion.
“This conversation affects everyone,” Robertson said. “Whether you’re a political science major or not. It’s affecting the world, it’s affecting America, and it’s important to be aware of it and know what’s going on so that you can react to it appropriately.”
