Simpson/RABA poll shows Trump with narrow lead over Clinton


by Alex Kirkpatrick, Digital Editor

DES MOINES, Iowa — Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a three-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 44 percent to 41 percent, a new poll released Thursday evening shows.

The latest Simpson College/Red America Blue America Research poll was taken Nov. 1 and 2 after the FBI announced it would reopen an investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Evan McMullin each have 2 percent support. Six percent of likely Iowa voters are undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Clinton 46 percent to 44 percent with 10 percent still undecided.

Despite recent controversies – including sexual assault allegations against Trump and Clinton’s email woes – supporters aren’t wavering, political experts said.

“His lead with non-college voters and men surpasses Clinton’s lead with college-educated voters and women,” said Kedron Bardwell, professor of political science at Simpson College in a press release. “If GOP turnout holds up, those groups will be key to the party’s chances in Iowa.”

The poll found that one-third of Iowa voters under 30 support Trump, and the number grows to four in 10 in a two-way race.

Clinton leads among women, millennials and college-educated voters while Trump has a considerable nine-point lead among men and a 13-point lead among non-college-educated voters.

With concerns that the election could be rigged, 74 percent of Iowa voters said they think the Iowa contest is fair and accurate, though one in four voters under 30 said they’re not confident that the results will be fair.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

View the full poll here.